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← Last Thursday’s Closer · Six Headwinds. One Week. BTC Below $60,000.

The Six Headwinds Are Still Blowing

BTC opens at $59,400, ETH at $1,565. Over the weekend equity futures traded flat, crude pushed to the $72 handle on the Iran strikes and is holding, and gold sits near $4,090. Markets are absorbing the weekend news, not panicking. Thursday’s jobs number is the dominant event this week — and before that, Iran struck two vessels in the Strait and Saylor has until Tuesday to announce a STRC dividend change.

Six headwinds from last week. Here is where each one sits.

Last week we laid out six headwinds hitting the market at once. Some of the shorter-term pressure has cleared. What remains are four structural forces that do not resolve overnight. STRC and Iran both have direct developments this week. The jobs number Thursday is the one that moves everything else.

The window to raise the dividend closes tomorrow. Bitcoin is watching.

STRC is a financial product Saylor created to raise money to buy Bitcoin. It is designed to trade at $100 per share. When it does, Strategy can keep selling new shares and buying Bitcoin. When it trades below $100, that funding tap closes and the buying stops. STRC closed Friday at $74.57 — about 26% below target (Yahoo Finance). The buying program has been shut off since mid-May.

Why does that matter if you just hold Bitcoin? Because Strategy was one of the most consistent institutional buyers in the market for the past year. Every week, regardless of price, they were in there buying. That bid is gone right now.

Here is what to watch. Under STRC’s semi-monthly dividend schedule, Strategy has until Tuesday June 30 to announce any rate change applying from July 16 (per the SEC 424B5 dated June 23). The July 15 payment is locked at 11.50%. The market expects a raise toward 12–12.5%, given STRC is 26% below par and Strive’s SATA pays 13%. A raise by tomorrow signals they are fighting to get the product back to $100 and the buying machine has a path back online. Watch for a press release today or tomorrow morning.

Two vessels struck in three days. The ceasefire is under real stress.

The peace deal signed earlier this month had Iran agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows through. An open Strait means lower oil, lower inflation, and less reason for the Fed to keep rates high. Markets priced that tailwind in. Over three days, the picture got more complicated.

Two vessels, two US military responses, and a Gulf ally targeted in 72 hours. Oil moved from Friday’s $69.23 settle to the $72 handle and is holding there. The oil tailwind the market priced in earlier this month is on hold until this settles down. Watch oil this week as your real-time read on how the market is pricing the Iran situation.

The same forces hitting Bitcoin are moving everything else too.

Bitcoin and equities are under pressure from the same two things: a strong dollar and high interest rates. Gold is holding its ground at $4,090, showing relative strength against everything else. Oil is caught between the Iran escalation pushing it higher and the same rate pressure weighing on risk assets. Thursday’s jobs number — specifically wage growth alongside the headline — touches all four at once.

Wednesday is the busiest day. Thursday is the one that moves everything.

Four headwinds still intact. Three events that could start shifting them.

This content is produced by Harmonic for educational purposes. It is strategy education, not investment advice.